AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, July 03, 2018
***** Corn down 3 1/2 to 4 cents; soybeans little changed; Chicago wheat up 10 3/4 to 13. ***** 

   # Grains are quietly higher overnight, wheat in the lead.  Trading volume is near average for recent night sessions.  Corn volume may add up to near 50,000 contracts before the break to compare with average total-day volume of about 550,000 contracts for the last month.
   # Corn and soybean futures are technically oversold by many measures; however, the market is reluctant to rebound with trade worries hanging overhead.  Nearby corn futures are off 71 cents from their late May high; soybeans down $2; Chicago wheat down 62 cents.
   # Not much in the way of new developments on the trade war front.  Chinese officials are working to manage related weakness for the yuan currency while stocks are also sliding.  New U.S. tariffs against the Chinese and new Chinese tariffs against the U.S. come into effect on Friday.     
   # Much of the Midwest has a 50-50 shot at receiving rain over the next two days.  The 6-10 day forecast splits a wetter bias for the Eastern Corn Belt against a drier WCB.  Temperatures should continue to run above normal across the U.S.
   # Government crop scouts called U.S. corn 76 percent Good/Excellent, down one point from the previous week.  Illinois was rated 85 percent G/E, Iowa 78 percent, Missouri 52 percent, Indiana 76 percent.  Silking progress was marked down at 17 percent versus 9 percent a year ago.  
   # Soybeans were tagged 71 percent Good/Excellent versus 73 percent last week and 64 percent last year.  Trouble spots are found in Missouri and on into the Southern Plains where drought still has a hold on the region. 
   # The Illinois Crop Progress and Condition report called subsoil moisture supply 75 percent adequate and 12 percent in surplus.  Rainfall averaged 1.26 inches for the state last week, which was 0.37 inches more than normal.  Temperature averaged 77.5 degrees and was 3.2 degrees above usual.  
   # Oil futures are back higher after taking a short breather on Monday.  President Trump recently called Saudi Arabia’s king to ask that his country increase oil production to help keep prices down.  The market is finding support as North American inventories slip and production falls in Iran.    

***** Cattle futures look to open steady/weaker; hogs up for a test of a three-month high. ***** 

   # Cattle futures look bound to have a choppy week as traders lack guidance from a well-developed cash market.  Bull spreading may be featured to reflect stronger nearby demand and weaker forward supply projections.  Trade tariffs remain a negative with beef potentially a target for new Canadian taxes.       
   # Nearby hog futures approach a test of technical resistance from June’s high at $83.82.  Fundamentally, firm cash and wholesale markets are a signal of strong demand, but deals in those markets are slowing, either as a result of the holiday having arrived or consumption slowing down, or both.