AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, June 07, 2018
***** Corn down 2 to 3 cents; soybeans drop 18 1/2 to 20; Chicago wheat gains 4 3/4 to 7 cents. ***** 

   # Soybeans were hit early by technical selling that followed from the previous session’s bearish reversal.  Fundamental bears helped hammer the oilseed after a poor export sales report was added to ongoing trade concerns.  
   # The June crop report is due out next Tuesday, the 12th.  Analysts do not see the USDA deviating too far from their initial May estimates for new-crop carryout totals.  Corn endings stocks for 2019 were pegged at 1.682 billion bushels, soybeans at 415 mbu, and wheat at 1.07 bbu.
   # More drastic changes are expected for the South American production estimates next week.  Argentina’s corn and soybean crops are seen moving lower yet (to 32.5 mt and 38 mt, respectively) after drought reduced harvest potential there.  Late-season dryness for Brazil will be likely to have led to a reduction in the country’s corn crop estimate, viewed somewhere near 84.5 mt.  Brazil had a strong bean year and will haul in something around 117.5 mt.  
   # Oil futures rebounded today in a bid to take back some of what was lost over the previous three weeks.  Investors are seeing political turmoil getting in the way of production in Iran and Venezuela.  Technical buyers were also working to protect chart support from July WTI contract’s 100-day moving average.  
   # Data collected by NASA’s GRACE satellites show notable soil moisture deficits currently faced throughout northern Missouri and western Illinois.  Still, government crop scouts recently called subsoil moisture in Illinois 80 percent adequate or in surplus. 
   # Bloomberg reports on trader sentiment to show just more than half of all analysts polled describing themselves as bullish the corn market.  A third were bearish corn with the rest neutral.  21 percent of respondents were bullish soybeans with 26 percent bearish and rest unconvinced either way.
   # Thunderstorms are in the Midwest forecast for much of this week, but chances for significant rain totals and coverage are low.  The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have turned notably wetter, but they remain clearly warmer than normal.  
   # Market participants will continue to keep a close eye on President Trump as he travels to Quebec tomorrow for the G-7 summit.  It is expected that he will receive some pushback from our allies on his trade policy changes.  Next week, President Trump will travel to Singapore to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un.         

***** Live cattle futures steady to $0.42 lower; feeders off $0.22 to $0.47; hogs up $0.22 to down $1.05. ***** 

   # Cattle were moderately weaker to finish after starting slightly stronger.  The board is discounted to the latest cash benchmark, so sellers wanted to be cautious before seeing how the cash market develops when activity picks up tomorrow.  Boxed beef prices were down a touch on the day.  Choice and select cuts are averaging 90.5 and 92.6 percent of their year-ago values, respectively.    
   # July hogs slipped lower and bounced from the daily pivot to settle on top of their 100-day moving average. Traders were conflicted seeing pork prices up for another day while export sales came in very poorly.