AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 13, 2018
***** Corn futures little changed before the break; soybeans up 2 1/2 to 3 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat down a nickel. ***** 

   # The grain trade is a quiet one overnight.  Lower wheat prices weigh on corn but soybeans extend Thursday’s gains.  Action in outside markets is also largely muted. 
   # A few acres will have been planted in the Midwest before storms roll through this weekend.  Rain is falling in northern Iowa this morning and showers will be expected to pop up in Illinois later today.  Snow is coming down in the Northern Plains now.
   # The 6-10 day outlook map is shaded a deep blue to indicate strong chances that temperatures continue to run below normal throughout much of the country.  Green is the precipitation map to keep things wet.  The Southern Plains is now in line to receive solid rainfall next week.  
   # A wetter forecast is leaning on wheat futures.  The nearby Chicago contract is reaching below its 200-day moving average this morning and is set up for a test of a converging pair of 10- and 50-days.  Weakness for the wheat market has been seen as a drag on corn this week.  
   # Grain futures have clear support from hedge fund speculators, who are wanting to be on the long side of the market as we head into the growing season.  The money managers know that weather-related planting and production season risks make it so that the seasonal tendencies are for corn and soybeans to move higher into the months of June and July.
   # Trade war fears have abated considerably in recent days with President Trump now suggesting that the U.S. may be willing to work with China and others on terms of a Trans-Pacific trade pact.  
   # Corn bulls are cautiously optimistic over news that President Trump is favoring a plan that would allow the sale of E-15 ethanol blend year-round.  E-15 is not currently available everywhere through the summer months because of vapor pressure restrictions.  

***** Livestock futures look to enjoy follow-through buying interest after a strong Thursday session.  *****

   # Cattle futures were moving up Thursday toward a cash trade that is expected to develop near $118 today.  Beef has been on a weaker trend but should start to find support from rising consumer demand into the spring season.  
   # Hog futures are staging a solid rebound after the nearby contract gave up 25 percent from the start of 2018 to its early-April low.  April hogs target $70 to complete a 50 percent retracement of the slide.