AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, April 12, 2018
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are mixed in the early trade; soybeans 2 higher, corn 1-2 higher, but wheat 10-13 lower. ***** 

   # Wheat seems to be leading the way lower on yesterday’s latest long range weather forecasts.  Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicated increasing moisture chances for the stressed crops in the S. Plains.  All but Texas could have above normal rains, and even it could have mostly normal rains.
   # Temps continue to be the extremes, with cold dominating the north, although less extreme, while a warm dome remains over the S. Plains, albeit one that seems to be retreating.  And moisture is expected to be above normal across much of the Corn Belt/N. Plains.
   # Longer range weather forecasts seem to be suggesting the Midwest is going to be on the cool side over the next couple of months. 
   # Soybean export sales, 2.465 mmt., exceeded expectations.  Corn sales, 895,500 tons, were good, but at the low end of the range.  Wheat sales, 188,700 tons, were again below expectations.  Soymeal sales, 317,400 tons, were good again.
   # The Rosario Grain Exchange released new Arg. production forecasts.  The most notable change was a 3 mmt reduction in their soybean forecast to 37 mmt.  They left their corn production estimate at 32 mmt. 
   # Weather remains mostly good across the northern parts of Brazilian producing areas where most of the 2nd crop corn is raised, but we are seeing some indication the moisture pattern is faltering and soils are drying out.  If continued, it could fit with some of the sub 90 mmt. 2nd crop forecasts.
   # Spring sowing is getting off the mark slow in the Black Sea region.  Ukrainian plantings are said to be: 22% done for barley, 10% for oats, and 15% for spring wheat.
   # Dalian soy prices were off 2 yuan overnight, soymeal was down 8, with corn off 5 yuan.  Malaysian palm oil was down 7 ringgit on higher production forecasts. 
   # There is talk coming from Washington about the Trump Adm developing an aid package to blunt the impact trade difficulties are having on American farmers. 
   # House Ag. Chairman Conway expects to release the House’s version of the new ag farm bill today. 
   # Equity markets are starting the day firmer with the trade anticipating good 1st qtr. earnings to come with corporate releases over the next week or so.  The Dollar was a little firmer in the early trade too, but all the financial markets are a little fragile with the escalating Middle Eastern uncertainty. 

***** Cattle should start the day slightly higher; Lean hogs mixed. ***** 
   # Wholesale beef is slightly lower with choice at $213.07. Cash cattle prices are expected to rebound after the hard break over the last 1-2 weeks.  Offers are said to be near $120, implying a cash trade at $115-$118. 
   # Wholesale pork is slightly lower at $65.86. Cash hog prices are expected to be as much as $1 higher in the early trade.  Packers indicate they are starting to see numbers tighten slightly, suggesting the seasonal decline in supply is about to begin.