AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, April 10, 2018
***** Corn fractionally weaker; soybeans up 3 to 4 cents; Chicago wheat lower by 4. *****

   # It’s report day again.  USDA will issue an update to the WASDE balance sheets today at 11:00 am central.  Action in the grains is mixed overnight with soybeans higher and trading solid volume, corn and wheat lower in a lighter traded affair.  
   # Analysts are looking for upward revisions to U.S. corn and soybean carryout estimates.  Corn ending stocks are anticipated near 2.19 billion bushels, soybeans around 575 million bushels.  
   # Production forecasts for Argentina are thought sure to come down after suffering a persistent drought this season.  Argentine corn production is pegged around 34 million tons versus 41 mt last year, soybeans at 43 mt versus 57.8 mt.  
   # Brazil’s Conab is calling their soybean crop a record 114.96 million tons.  To match, USDA would have to come up from their March estimate of 113 mt.  Some analysts are as high as 117 mt on the number.  
   # Traders should return their focus quickly to worrying about trade wars and weather.  
   # Other political ongoings have put the trade talk on the back burner for now.  The White House is weighing options for a response to chemical weapon use in Syria while also running damage control after an FBI raid was carried out at President Trump’s private lawyer’s office.  Rhetoric from both sides has softened regarding the U.S./China stance on the tariff fight.
   # The latest run of the two-week forecast turned colder, but drier.  Much of the country is still at risk of facing a winter-like storm late this week and into the weekend.  
   # Planting delays will become an increasing concern if the weather pattern holds unfavorable.  A first look at corn planting progress on Monday afternoon showed the crop 2 percent planted with help from Texas being at 58 percent sown.       

***** Livestock futures look to open steady/better ahead of the USDA report. *****

   # With help from a higher stock market and friendlier trade talk from China’s President Xi, cattle futures may take on a firmer tone at the start.  Still negative the market are accelerating beef production totals and an unfavorable early spring weather forecast.        
   # Hogs may also be helped by abating trade war fears. Traders will have an eye on the USDA pork production estimates to be included in today’s supply and demand report.