AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, March 12, 2018
***** Corn futures off 1 1/4 to 1 3/4 cents; soybeans lower by the same; Chicago wheat down 3 to 4 1/2. ***** 

   # It is mostly sunny for the Midwest this week before the 6-10 day outlook provides an elevated shot for rain.  The 8-14 forecast leans wet for most with temperatures cooling off slightly again.  
   # Rain totals were light for Argentina this weekend, as expected.  Chances for a solid rain event are still in the mix for next weekend.  Farmers in central and northern Brazil faced further harvest delays due to persistent rainy weather that should continue on into the new week.
   # Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated to be about halfway harvested.  Second crop corn plantings have mostly caught up to an average pace after last week reaching about 80 percent complete.
   # Fund traders extended their length in the ag commodities last week.  The Commitments of Traders report showed the large speculators holding a net corn long of 164,000 contracts.  The soybean position was net-bullish by 184,000 contracts while the wheat position was still slightly short, by about 12,000 contacts.  
   # USDA marked the Central Illinois producer basis averages at 27 cents under May futures for corn, 50 1/2 cents under for soybeans.  The Interior Iowa corn and soybean basis average were pegged at 46 and 88 cents under, respectively.  
   # March corn futures still trade inside Thursday’s report day range, leaving support and resistance in place at $3.78 and $3.85 3/4.  The contract is ahead of its major moving averages, including the 10-day rising from $3.79.  
   # Market participants are waiting for the other shoe to drop after President Trump signed an executive order placing new tariffs on steel and aluminum last week.  Traders are fearful that effected countries will retaliate in kind.

***** Cattle futures biased weaker but nearing oversold; hogs work to rebound after dismal start to the year. ***** 

   # Action in the beef market is leaning negative with packers slowing down slaughters.  Cash prices booked near $126-$127 last week leave the board discounted, so futures traders may be less willing to sell aggressively at the start of the new week.  
   # Hogs are consolidating near six-month lows, remaining technically weak as they start the session with a test of resistance from the April’s 10-day moving averages.  A tumble for bellies last week puts the wholesale pork market on the defensive and keeps fundamental leanings negative.